Churn, choice and changing streaming economics in 2026

If 2025 forced streaming services to confront the limits of growth, 2026 will make retention their defining strategic priority. Subscriber behavior is changing faster than many providers can adapt to, with viewers moving in and out of services rapidly and demanding more convenience and value from every subscription. Viewers are cycling through services at unprecedented speeds, and the cost of replacing a lost user is consistently higher than keeping one.

Major players such as Netflix have emphasized engagement as a core performance metric, shifting away from reporting subscriber counts and instead focusing on revenue and data points like viewing hours, even as churn remains a significant priority for the entire industry. Younger cohorts, particularly Gen Z, have made “subscription fluidity” the norm. Deloitte’s 2025 research shows nearly half of Gen Z and millennial viewers have recently canceled a streaming service, compared with far lower rates among older generations. They want personalized plans and subscription offerings that align with their viewing habits and budgets — especially in areas like sports, where fragmented rights now force fans to use multiple services just to follow a single team or league. This fragmentation drives up the total cost of fandom and is reinforcing demand for far more flexible, user-centric subscription models. Services that fail to meet those expectations will face persistent churn challenges in 2026.

This shift is also unfolding against a backdrop of evolving cancellation and renewal regulation. Although the FTC’s national click-to-cancel rule was recently blocked in federal court, many providers are acting as though similar requirements will inevitably move forward, and state-level rules — especially in California — continue to push the industry toward clearer cancellation paths, simpler disclosures, and more transparent billing practices. The direction of travel is unchanged: subscribers expect fair, easy-to-understand subscription journeys and flexible options, where users can pay for specific moments — or even sign on at the last second for a game they’d like to watch.

The bundles that keep customers loyal

Bundling has been back for a while. The modern bundle is no longer a set-and-forget package — it’s a retention strategy built around relevance and flexibility in timing. The bundles that will win in 2026 are those that give subscribers more value without adding cognitive or financial overload. Cognitive overload and purchase flow friction can be avoided by enabling intelligent entitlements — for example, prompting an NFL viewer at the end of a game with a one-click option to jump into related content on another service, without forcing them to search for, download or navigate a new app. Consumers want streaming combinations that feel tailored, not prescriptive. Telcos are already driving this shift with configurable entertainment bundles, while sports and entertainment platforms are forming cross-service partnerships designed to deepen engagement rather than simply grow footprint.

New Parks Associates data reinforces this trend: nearly 40% of US broadband households now bundle a streaming service with their home internet, overtaking traditional pay-TV bundles for the first time. When consumers can unify services and manage multiple subscriptions through a single storefront, their likelihood to stay increases. The opportunity becomes even clearer when operators can launch bundles quickly, adapt them regionally and automate multi-partner revenue sharing behind the scenes. But loyalty won’t come from locking people into bundles. It will come from making bundles feel like the easiest and most cost-effective way to get what consumers want — and with the most flexibility in terms of media choices.

Pricing gets flexible — and personal

One of the strongest signals heading into 2026 is that rigid, one-price-fits-all subscription models simply cannot keep up with consumer expectations. Pricing is becoming more flexible, seasonal and increasingly tuned to context and behavior.

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Sports have led much of the experimentation. Companies we’ve worked with have seen significant revenue lifts by adopting this approach: one major broadcaster reported a 40% increase after introducing flexible access tiers for high-demand matches. In Europe, another provider saw single-event purchases rise by more than a third after rolling out match-specific micro-subscriptions. Meanwhile, TF1+ in France is testing micropayments. Viewers can pay €0.69 – €0.99 to watch episodes ad-free, gain early access to shows or unlock bonus event content. The model borrows from mobile gaming’s optional, moment-specific upgrades, offering users a way to enhance individual experiences without committing to a full subscription upgrade.

Audience data supports this direction. Parks Associates reports that 72% of viewers aged 18-24 watch sports highlights weekly — far higher than older demographics — showing the value younger audiences place on short-form access. The NBA’s League Pass reflects this trend as a model example for D2C sports services: upgrades, downgrades, pause/resume options and personalized promotions have driven record engagement and subscriber growth as well as sustaining engagement beyond the core season, keeping fans connected even during quieter periods when interest naturally dips. As more services adopt similar models, flexible access and pricing will become one of the most dependable tools for sustaining engagement.

How AI is reshaping churn prediction and prevention

The volume of subscriber data available to streaming services has grown dramatically, and AI is becoming essential to making sense of it. The most impactful use cases aren’t flashy; they are operational tools that strengthen retention.

Churn prediction is a clear example: by analyzing extensive datasets built from millions of transactions and long-term behavioral patterns, AI models can detect subtle signs of disengagement early and guide timely interventions with personalized targeted offers, before a subscriber reaches the point of cancellation. Systems can now achieve accuracy rates approaching 97% in identifying at-risk subscribers.

Payment intelligence is also essential, particularly in markets where a large share of churn is involuntary. AI-based systems that anticipate failed or expired transactions and trigger the right recovery tactic in real time are helping reduce unintentional subscriber loss and related costs of over-pinging the server. Instead of responding after the fact, services are now translating subscriber behavior into timely, data-driven decisions and are able to act in the moments that matter, including proactively recovering a payment before it fails

Redefining loyalty

The biggest shift shaping churn is the reality that across streaming, the overall value proposition for the subscriber must now be clearer, more transparent and more compelling than ever. Loyalty is no longer something a platform can assume — it must be earned continually through consistent, meaningful interactions that demonstrate ongoing value.

Churn is a signal. So are shifting engagement patterns, rising expectations for flexibility, and the impact of highly fragmented content rights. In 2026, the winners will be the services that treat these signals as guidance, not setbacks. Get to know your subscribers better. Listen closely. Act fast. Offer something they can’t get anywhere else — whether that’s smarter bundles or intuitive pricing models. These will be the pillars of differentiation in streaming retention.

Greg Sigel, EvergentGreg is SVP of strategic accounts at Evergent. He has over 20 years of cross-market, international experience with expertise in sales, marketing, business development and strategy, across fintech, digital health, natural language processing/AI, m-commerce, digital media, telecommunications, and security software. He has been a leader that was key in realizing four acquisitions by such leaders as Blackberry/RIM and Nuance/Microsoft.