Why IP-based targeting is failing CTV campaigns

For years, IP addresses have served as a foundational signal for connected TV (CTV) targeting. They became a convenient stand in for household identity as streaming scaled faster than the industry’s ability to standardize measurement and addressability processes. But just because it’s convenient doesn’t mean it’s right, and mounting evidence has demonstrated that relying on IP address matching and resolution to a home is a process riddled with holes.

According to a report from independent data company TruthSet, IP-based identity matching back to a postal address or email address is accurate only 13-16% of the time. Worse than that, different identity providers agree with each other on a given IP-to-postal linkage only 7% of the time. In other words, IP signals are far less reliable than most likely realize; they aren’t accurate at all!. Household linkages based on IP address frequently point to the wrong location, device, viewer, or all of the above. With multiple IPs cycling through a single home and inconsistent timestamps across providers, even the same household can appear fragmented from one exposure to the next. When identity breaks down like this, even the most carefully planned campaigns are built on a sinking foundation.

This instability has profound consequences for advertisers. In CTV, precision is thought to be central to the value proposition. Budgets are shifting to streaming to reach specific audiences, not only to replicate broad reach. But when identity signals are this unreliable, performance metrics might appear healthy while the true effectiveness is much more modest. And while it may not be immediately obvious, underdelivery against the target audience and campaign objectives can be hugely substantial. Advertisers may think they are reaching their intended households when in reality, impressions are misassigned, diminishing ROI and turning what is supposed to be a very efficient medium into your most expensive TV investment.

So what can marketers do instead?

The next phase of CTV growth will require a shift toward more authenticated, household-level identity frameworks. Identity rooted in verified, stable, and privacy-compliant subscriber relationships, rather than inferred from transient technical signals, provides the required foundation for planning, activation, and measurement in CTV. These approaches reduce guesswork, improve accountability, and create stronger alignment between ad delivery and the households advertisers intend to reach.

Marketers should consider three guiding principles when evaluating identity solutions.

First, verify that the underlying data comes from a reliable source, not inferred or probabilistic signals. Second, prioritize cross-screen consistency to ensure households are accurately represented across all inventory, devices, and platforms, which enables better frequency management and campaign optimization. Third, integrate measurement and accountability into every step of activation, so campaigns can be evaluated against real outcomes rather than approximations, helping marketers make data-driven decisions with confidence.

The industry has spent years optimizing for speed and scale, often prioritizing reach over precision.

Advertisement

The next phase will be defined by trust. In CTV, that trust starts with identity. When marketers know beyond a doubt that they are reaching who they intend to, every dollar works harder, insights become more meaningful, and campaign performance reflects reality rather than approximation. By embracing verified, privacy-conscious identity practices, CTV advertisers can finally connect exposure to impact with clarity, accountability, and confidence.

Justin Rosen, AmpersandJustin Rosen leads the organization within Ampersand responsible for all things insights, analytics, and data collaboration and partnerships. His team manages the development of new and innovative uses of data in support of Ampersand’s mission to transform the TV industry to audience-based, multiscreen, and accountable. In his time with the company, he has led the implementation of Ampersand’s addressable data capabilities, established Ampersand’s Total TV and Incremental Reach solutions, and has advanced audience-first tactics and storytelling connected to Ampersand’s AND Platform. Justin also works alongside Ampersand’s MVPD owners and affiliates to ensure consistent methodology, data governance, and workflows. Prior to joining Ampersand, Justin was executive director, data innovation with Comcast Advertising. He has also spent time at Turner Sports with their research and strategy team, as well as with The Nielsen Company, in their Media Analytics group. Justin received an MBA from New York University’s Stern School of Business, and a BA from Cornell University. Justin lives in South Orange, NJ with his wife and two sons.