Updated BIA forecast projects 8.1% growth in local advertising for 2026

BIA Advisory Services revised its 2026 U.S. local advertising forecast, projecting total revenue to reach $184.5 billion, an 8.1% increase from 2025. The updated figure exceeds the firm’s prior estimate of $181.7 billion, driven by stronger performance in mobile, video, streaming, political advertising and ad technology.

The company said the nonpolitical forecast rose to $176.1 billion, up from $172.7 billion in its earlier outlook.

“Our updated forecast reflects continued momentum in social and connected and over the top television, which are capturing a growing share of local advertising budgets,” said Senan Mele, VP of Forecasting and Data Analysis, BIA Advisory Services. “At the same time, traditional media such as broadcast television, cable and radio remain essential, providing the scale, credibility, and local connection that advertisers rely on to drive awareness and demand.”

Political advertising is expected to be a major contributor in 2026, with BIA projecting about $8.4 billion in local political spend across broadcast television, cable, connected TV, radio and direct mail.

The forecast pointed to a mix of short-term and long-term growth drivers, including political cycles and sustained demand from verticals such as real estate, restaurants, travel, retail and financial services. BIA projected total local advertising could exceed $222 billion by 2030.

“The local advertising marketplace continues to reflect a K-shaped consumer economy,” said Rick Ducey, managing director, BIA Advisory Services. “Stronger spending from higher-income households is supporting discretionary categories like travel, leisure, and automotive, while value-oriented spending is shaping demand in retail, restaurants, and essential services.”

The updated outlook highlighted continued shifts in the media mix, with digital channels — including mobile, social and connected TV — leading growth, while traditional platforms maintain reach and brand impact.

BIA also introduced digital out-of-home as a standalone category in its forecast, separating it from traditional out-of-home advertising to reflect increased adoption of programmatic and location-based media.

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“Overall, the local advertising market is not contracting; it is transforming. The most successful media companies will be those that can combine local audience scale with targeting, optimization, and measurement to capture both cyclical political spending and ongoing demand from growth-oriented verticals,” Mele said.