Industry analysts issue mixed outlook for streaming in 2026

Streaming services face both opportunities and structural challenges in 2026, according to three research firms’ annual predictions.

The forecasts from Hub Entertainment Research, Looper Insights and Antenna highlight areas of growth in sports, local advertising and AI-driven personalization while pointing to ongoing fragmentation and economic uncertainty in the broader digital media ecosystem.

AI shifts power in content discovery

Executives surveyed by Looper Insights said operating system-level AI assistants will increasingly control which shows and services appear on TV home screens, with 75% indicating this shift moves influence away from individual apps.

“By 2026, discovery will no longer live inside apps; it will live above them,” said Francesca Pezzoli, VP of marketing at Looper Insights. “Our research shows OS-level AI assistants are becoming the primary gatekeepers of what shows and services audiences see first on TV home screens, shifting power away from individual streaming services.”

Roku projected in its annual predictions report that AI-driven recommendations will reduce the time viewers spend searching for content, which reached an average of 20 minutes in 2025, according to Comscore data cited by the company. The company said personalized recommendations influenced over 80% of viewing hours on some platforms as of August.

Nearly half of executives surveyed by Looper Insights said AI will have its most immediate impact on automated trailer creation, artwork testing and content packaging rather than on scripted content production.

“The biggest impact of AI in 2026 will be in shaping how stories are packaged, tested, and surfaced,” Pezzoli said. “Automated trailers, artwork testing, and content packaging are where leaders see immediate value.”

Bundling expands beyond video

Hub Entertainment Research said 2026 will bring an expansion of bundles that combine streaming video with services including gaming, music, grocery delivery, fitness and online education.

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“While streaming TV remains the epicenter of consumer ‘subscription overload,’ the issue extends far beyond video,” said Jon Giegengack, principal and founder at Hub Entertainment Research. “As households juggle more paid services, 2026 will bring an expansion of bundles from pay TV operators and other aggregators such as telcos and Amazon.”

Subscription providers test new distribution models as consumer shopping behavior evolves

Multi-party bundling or super bundling is also on the mind of Bango’s Giles Tongue, who noted bundling’s impact on loyalty in an NCS interview: “The more subscription services that you add to the core service, the more loyal you become to that core service.” 

Antenna data, meanwhile, showed that among subscribers who signed up for the HBO Max-Disney+ bundle between July and November 2024, 59% remained subscribed 12 months later, seven percentage points higher than Netflix and 26 percentage points higher than HBO Max standalone subscriptions.

Sports streaming strategy divides industry

Looper Insights found that 47.4% of executives surveyed expect bundling to define sports streaming strategy in 2026, while 34.5% anticipate fragmentation will worsen before improving.

“Sports streaming is shifting from ownership of full seasons to control of moments,” Pezzoli said. “Bundling, highlights, and event-driven access are becoming the dominant strategies as platforms try to simplify a fragmented viewing experience.”

Hub Entertainment Research noted rising costs for top-tier league rights will drive investment in mid-tier and niche sports.

“As the rights to top-tier leagues grow too costly for all but the biggest media players, 2026 will see increased investment in mid-tier and niche sports with passionate followings,” Giegengack said. “Expect broader distribution for sports like volleyball and tennis, continued momentum in women’s leagues, and the rise of participant-driven properties such as professional pickleball and cornhole.”

Ad-supported models gain acceptance

Roku said 96% of streaming households on its platform see video ads somewhere in their viewing, citing internal data. The company projected that free ad-supported streaming television channels will reach 10% of total TV viewing in 2026, up from 5% in October 2025 for The Roku Channel and Tubi combined, according to Nielsen data.

Looper Insights reported that nearly 60% of executives view FAST as a sustainable, premium ad-supported business model rather than a promotional tool.

Roku also projected that up to 50% of streaming advertisers will shift budgets from search and social media to connected TV in the second half of 2026, citing declining click-through rates in search and brand safety concerns in social media.

Creator content expands to TV platforms

Hub Entertainment Research also predicts YouTube will increase its emphasis on licensed movies and classic TV series to drive viewing on television screens.

“By packaging and promoting familiar titles in ways that appeal to audiences encountering them for the first time, YouTube is poised to extend its dominance beyond short-form and capture more living-room viewing,” said Jason Platt Zolov, senior consultant at Hub Entertainment Research.

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Roku reported that viewership of creator-led content on The Roku Channel grew nearly 80% in streaming hours per household year-over-year in August, citing internal data.

Nearly half of Looper Insights survey respondents said viewing behavior has permanently shifted toward platforms like TikTok and YouTube, with 38.3% indicating traditional streamers must adopt creator-driven models.

Netflix maintains its competitive advantage

But Netflix still reigns supreme for streaming.

Antenna data showed Netflix continues to attract viewers even for content available on services with deep catalogs in specific genres. Among Disney+ subscribers who watched children’s titles on that service between February and July 2025, nine in 10 of the top titles by reach watched off-service were on Netflix, and four in 10 were children’s and family titles.

Antenna estimated that 23% of Disney+ children’s title viewers watched Despicable Me 4 on Netflix in March, more than four times the rate of average Netflix viewers.

Hub Entertainment Research said Netflix could make progress in gaming by attaching high-profile talent to promote titles.

“With high-profile talent attached to promote and legitimize its titles, Netflix has the opportunity to turn a simple, accessible game into a shared, living-room phenomenon,” Zolov said.

However, Looper Insights found that nearly 73% of executives surveyed said streaming-to-gaming convergence will remain niche in 2026.

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Consolidation and recalibration ahead for 2026

The research suggests the streaming industry is moving from expansion to consolidation.

Control over discovery is shifting to platform-level infrastructure, while bundling emerges as a response to fragmentation and subscription fatigue. Netflix’s sustained ability to draw viewers across genres indicates that scale continues to provide a structural advantage even as new entrants adopt creator-driven models and ad-supported tiers.

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Broader economic pressures are also reshaping the landscape.

The migration of advertising budgets to connected TV reflects instability in search and social media, where AI-generated content and zero-click searches are eroding traditional monetization models. Regulatory action on copyright and content compensation is expected to intensify, with implications extending beyond streaming to the wider digital media ecosystem.