The antenna audience isn’t going anywhere, and broadcasters have the data to prove it

The broadcast television industry is at a crossroads that, depending on whom you ask, is either a long-overdue moment of modernization or a regulatory minefield with real consequences for millions of American households.

A new consumer study released this week by Pearl TV and research firm Magid adds analytical weight to a debate that has been building for years: what happens to over-the-air viewers when the industry finally commits to a full transition to NextGen TV?

The short answer, according to the data, is that those viewers aren’t going to simply accept losing their free local television.

NextGen TV has been on the air through lighthouse stations for a few years now, with these lighthouses simulcasting both an ATSC 3.0 and 1.0 signal. The Federal Communications Commission authorized that dual-transmission approach as a voluntary transition mechanism, but it was always understood as a bridge, not a destination.

The National Association of Broadcasters and major broadcast groups have been increasingly vocal about wanting the FCC to establish a firm end date for legacy ATSC 1.0 transmissions. The argument is straightforward: simulcasting is expensive, it ties up spectrum, and it limits what broadcasters can do with the full capabilities of NextGen TV, which supports 4K HDR video, immersive audio, advanced emergency alerting and targeted data broadcasting.

The just of their argument: you can’t fully exploit the new standard while you’re still running the old one.

But a firm cutoff creates an immediate problem. There are tens of millions of television sets in American homes that are not NextGen TV-capable. Unlike the DTV transition, which had a federally subsidized converter box program and a hard congressional deadline, NextGen TV’s transition framework has no equivalent safety net.

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New data on the NextGen TV transition

The Magid survey, conducted online in January 2026 among 600 adults ages 25 to 64 who use an antenna on at least one television and watch at least two hours of over-the-air television per week, found that 81% of respondents said they would purchase a converter box to maintain access to free local broadcast television.

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That is a strong number, but the details matter as much as the headline figure.

Of those expressing purchase intent, 64% said they would opt for an entry-level “essential” box priced between $30 and $59. Only 32% said they would choose an enhanced box in the $79 to $99 range, and just 14% said they would purchase a new NextGen TV-capable television, which the survey priced between $300 and $2,000.

Of those surveyed, 18% said they would simply go without free access to local television content.

The top reasons respondents cited for wanting a converter box were, in order: a one-time purchase with no monthly fees (32%), the ability to continue watching free local TV (31%) and compatibility with their current television and antenna setup (27%).

Improved picture quality and additional channels ranked fourth at 26%.

The practical takeaway is that the over-the-air audience is not asking for a feature upgrade, they just don’t want to be cut off.

The audience isn’t who you think it is

One of the more consequential findings in this study is the demographic profile of the over-the-air audience.

The conventional assumption has long been that antenna-only viewing is a behavior associated with older, lower-income households. Interest in the converter box was strongest among adults ages 25 to 44, households with children and higher-income households.

Meanwhile, nearly two-thirds of antenna users in the survey also subscribe to at least one streaming service. The Magid report described this segment as “Omni-Viewers” — consumers who use free over-the-air broadcasting alongside paid digital platforms rather than as a substitute for them.

This has real implications for how broadcasters and the FCC should think about the transition, changing from framing from a subsidy for households that can’t access other platforms to a retention mechanism for an audience.

“Local broadcasting is not being replaced — it’s being integrated into broader viewing habits,” said Anne Schelle of Pearl TV. “A converter option ensures these growing audiences can continue receiving trusted local news, sports and emergency information as broadcast technology evolves.”

The 2009 digital television transition is the obvious reference point for anyone thinking about how this plays out.

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That transition, mandated by Congress and administered with significant federal resources including a $40 coupon program for converter boxes, still generated substantial disruption. Millions of households were caught unprepared despite years of public outreach.

NextGen TV’s transition, at least as currently structured, has no equivalent federal mechanism. The FCC has authorized the standard and encouraged voluntary deployment, but Congress has not legislated a sunset date for ATSC 1.0, and there is no coupon program on the horizon.

If the industry wants a clean transition, it will have to build that infrastructure itself.

The FCC proceeding on NextGen TV’s transition framework remains active, and the pressure from NAB and major broadcast groups for a firm ATSC 1.0 sunset date is likely to intensify as NextGen TV deployment expands.