YouTube TV projected to lead U.S. pay-TV market by 2027

YouTube TV is projected to become the largest pay-TV operator in the United States by 2027, according to new forecasts from research firm Omdia.

Omdia’s latest analysis shows that YouTube TV is on track to overtake Charter and Comcast within the next two years, marking the first time a virtual pay-TV service would lead the U.S. market.

By the end of 2025, Charter had an estimated 11.4 million pay-TV subscribers, followed by Comcast with 10.6 million and YouTube TV with 9.3 million. Omdia projects that by 2027, YouTube TV will reach 10.4 million subscribers, ahead of Charter’s 10 million and Comcast’s 9.2 million.

“For the first time in U.S. television history, the largest pay-TV operator will be a virtual provider,” said Maria Rua Aguete, head of media and entertainment at Omdia.

Rua Aguete said YouTube TV has expanded beyond its origins as a streaming bundle and now integrates linear channels, premium networks and sports content, including NFL Sunday Ticket.

“YouTube TV has evolved into a full pay-TV bundle,” she said. “This is not just another streaming service; it is the new face of U.S. pay TV.”

According to Omdia, YouTube’s reach extends beyond the pay-TV market. The company operates one of the world’s largest video platforms, with nearly 3 billion users worldwide.

“Netflix may reach 300 million global subscribers, but alongside YouTube’s 3 billion users, it is not a dominant global player,” Rua Aguete said. “YouTube operates at a scale that no subscription service can match.”

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Omdia’s data also highlights the fragmented nature of the U.S. subscription video-on-demand market. Netflix, the leading SVOD platform, accounts for only 15.7 percent of total U.S. subscriptions. Other leading platforms in 2025 include Amazon Prime Video with 64.7 million subscribers, Disney+ with 55.8 million, Paramount+ with 49.4 million, and HBO Max with 29.7 million.

“The idea of Netflix as a dominant streaming service is a misconception,” Rua Aguete said. “Audience attention and spend are spread across a wide array of platforms.”

Omdia’s research points to increasing consumer demand for hybrid offerings that combine linear TV, on-demand content, user-generated video and live sports. The firm notes that YouTube’s dual role as a global video platform and a rising U.S. pay-TV service positions it as a major player in the evolving media landscape.

Rua Aguete also commented on broader industry trends, including consolidation. She said both Paramount and Warner are viewed as key strategic assets in the U.S. entertainment market.

“Paramount and Warner remain two of the most strategically valuable assets in Hollywood,” she said. “Interest from players such as Netflix or Paramount reflects the growing need for scale, premium IP and global distribution.”